TodayFx Importance rating (A-E): A
Frequency: Monthly, on the first working Friday of the month.
Forecast: April: - -
Previous: March: -80,000
Methodology:
This information is collected from payroll records by BLS in cooperation with state agencies. The sample includes about 160,000 businesses and government agencies covering approximately 400,000 individual worksites. The active sample includes about one-third of all nonfarm payroll workers. The sample is drawn from a sampling frame of unemployment insurance tax accounts. The sample establishments are drawn from private nonfarm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on nonfarm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period, including persons on paid leave. Persons are counted in each job they hold. The data is released monthly and the nonfarm payroll number is widely seen as the most important economic indicator out of the US. The nonfarm indicator measures the economy’s ability to create new jobs and is a true test of the overall wellbeing of the US economy. A softening in the labour market is a signal to the US Fed that the economy may have peaked and can lead to a loosening in monetary policy, while a hardening in the labour market brings with it inflation worries and can lead to a tightening in the Fed’s monetary policy.
Data released by: US Department of Labour - Bureau of Labour Statistics
Source Data available at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
TodayFx Importance rating (A-E): A
Frequency: Quarterly through 3 separate releases - advance estimate, preliminary estimate and final estimate, usually a month apart.
Forecast: Qtr 1 Adv..: GDP --%, Chain Deflator --%
Previous: Qtr 4 Final.: GDP 0.6%, Chain Deflator 2.4%
Methodology:
Current-dollar GDP is a measure of the market value of goods, services, and structures produced in the economy in a particular period. Changes in current-dollar GDP can be decomposed into quantity and price components. Quantities, or "real" measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with the reference year -- at present, the year 2000 -- equal to 100. Annual changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent years. (Quarterly changes in quantities and prices are calculated using a Fisher formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent quarters; quarterly indexes are adjusted for consistency to the annual indexes before percent changes are calculated.) For example, the 2004-05 annual percent change in real GDP uses prices for 2004 and 2005 as weights, and the 2004-05 annual percent change in GDP prices uses quantities for 2004 and 2005 as weights. These annual changes are "chained" (multiplied) together to form time series of quantity and price indexes. Percent changes in Fisher indexes are not affected by the choice of reference year.
Measures of real GDP and its major components are also presented in dollar-denominated form, designated "chained (2000) dollar estimates." For most series, these estimates are computed by multiplying the current-dollar value in 2000 by a corresponding quantity index number and then dividing by 100. For example, if a current-dollar GDP component equaled $100 in 2000 and if real output for this component increased 10 percent in 2001, then the chained (2000) dollar value of this component in 2001 would be $110 (= $100 x 110 / 100). Percent changes calculated from chained-dollar estimates and from chain-type quantity indexes are the same; any differences will be small and due to rounding.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US Personal Income
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - released towards end of following month.
Forecast: March : --%
Previous: February : 0.5%
Personal Income Description:
A broader measure of real income that includes all sources of income, before taxes, including wages and salaries, the largest component of personal income, interest and dividend income, rental income, personal income receipts on assets and proprietors’ income.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at:http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE)
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - released towards end of following month.
Forecast: March: --%
Previous: February : 0.1%
PCE Description:
A broad measure of real personal expenditure, encompassing spend on durable goods, non-durable goods and services. Personal expenditure needs to be reviewed together with personal income to ascertain if expenditure growth is moving at a faster or slower rate than income growth. When expenditure growth exceeds income growth it heightens inflation worries and can contribute to further interest rate tightening by the Fed in the quest to curb excessive spending.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at:http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (PCE Core)
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B+
Frequency: Monthly - released towards end of following month.
Forecast: February vs January --%, February 2008 vs February 2007 --%
Previous: January vs December 0.1%, January 2008 vs January 2007 2.0%
PCE Core Description:
The index is a supplemental expenditure measure that is based on household expenditures for which there are observable price measures. It excludes most implicit prices (for example, the services furnished without payment by financial intermediaries) and the expenses of nonprofit institutions. The measure encompasses spend on durable goods, non-durable goods and services but excludes spend on food and energy. The core expenditure rate is the most important PCE rate, and is the one that is monitored closely by the Fed’s monetary policy committee.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US PCE Deflator
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Factory Orders
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Frequency: Monthly - released one month in arrears one week after the durable orders advance report.
Forecast: March: --%
Previous: February: -1.3%
Factory Orders Description:
The purpose of the manufacturers' orders survey is to provide broad-based monthly statistical data on current economic conditions and indications of future production commitments in the manufacturing sector. Factory orders consist of the earlier announced durable goods report plus non-durable goods orders. New orders, as reported in the monthly survey, are net of order cancellations and include orders received and filled during the month as well as orders received for future delivery. They also include the value of contract changes which increase or decrease the value of the unfilled orders to which they relate. Orders are defined to include those supported by binding legal documents such as signed contracts, letters of award, or letters of intent, although in some industries this definition may not be strictly applicable. In the case of letters of intent, the full amount of the sales value is included if the parties are in substantial agreement on the amount; otherwise, only the funds specifically authorized to be expended are included.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US Factory Inventores
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D -
Frequency: Monthly - released one month in arrears one week after the durable orders advance report.
Forecast: March: --%
Previous: February: -1.3%
Factory Inventories Description:
The purpose of the manufacturers' inventories survey is to provide broad-based monthly statistical data on current economic conditions and indications of future production commitments in the manufacturing sector. Inventories in the M3 survey are collected on a current cost or pre-LIFO (last in, first out) basis. Because different inventory valuation methods are reflected in the reported data, the estimates differ slightly from replacement cost estimates. Companies using the LIFO method for valuing inventories report their pre-LIFO value; that is, the adjustment to their base-period prices is excluded. In the ASM, inventories are collected according to this same definition. Inventory data are requested from respondents by stage of fabrication; that is, finished goods, work in process, and raw materials and supplies.
Data released by: US Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis
Source Data available at: http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm
US Initial Claims
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow.
US State Benefits
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D Description to follow.
US CB Help-Wanted Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow.
US Chicago Purchase Managers Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - released on the last working day of the month.
Forecast: April: --
Previous: March: 48.2
Chicago PMI Description:
The NAPM-Chicago Business Survey provides a valuable measure of the pervasiveness of economic trends. The survey includes manufacturing, mining, service, and trade businesses. Since the report covers the activities of each “company,” its coverage is global, but focused through membership in the NAPM- Chicago. The monthly NAPM-Chicago survey of Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Inventories, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Prices Paid provides a measure of the breadth of economic activity.
Importance:
It is particularly valued since the activity during the month is reported at month end, providing the “first look” at current business conditions. A reading over 50 signals business expansion while a reading less than 50 signals business contraction.
Data released by: Kingsbury International Limited
Source Data available at: http://www.kingbiz.com/
US BTMU Business Barometer
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow.
US Agricultural Prices
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow.
US Unemployment Rate
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B+
Description to follow.
US Average Workweek
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Hourly Earnings
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US Mich. Univer. Consumer Sentiment Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US Construction spending
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Pending Home Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US ISM Mfg Business Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): A
Frequency: Monthly - released at the start of the month.
Forecast: April: --
Previous: March: 48.6
ISM Manufacturing PMI Description (from ISM):
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indexes for five of the indicators (New Orders represents 30%, Production represents 25%, Employment represents 20%, Supplier Deliveries represents 15%, and Inventories represents 10%) by the varying weights. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A PMI reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50%, that it is generally declining. A PMI over 42.7%, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is generally expanding, below 42.7%, that it is generally declining. The distance from 50% or 42.7% is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.
Importance:
The key manufacturing sector barometer in the US, it has one of the shortest reporting lags of any macro-economic series and gives an important early look at the economy. The PMI has earned immense recognition over the years from economists and forecasters in government and business because of the report's early and accurate reflection with the manufacturing sector of the economy and the PMI's close correlation with the entire US economy. The Index is followed closely by members of the US Federal Reserve. A good index reading is good for the economy and consequently good for the dollar, although for dollar direction the underlying composite index needs to be looked at in combination with the prices component. If the composite index gains but the prices component falls, one could cancel out the effect of the other. Rising manufacturing prices keep the heat on inflation and hence US interest rates.
Data released by: The US Institute for Supply Management
Source Data available at: http://www.ism.ws
US ISM Mfg Prices
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US ICSC Store Sales Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US Trade Balance
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - a month in arrears, released towards start of second-next month.
Forecast: March: --
Previous: February : -$62.3B
Trade Balance Description (from the US Census Bureau):
The trade balance reflects the movement of goods between foreign countries and the 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and U.S. Foreign Trade Zones. They include government and non-government shipments of goods, and exclude shipments between the United States and its territories and possessions, transactions with U.S. military, diplomatic and consular installations abroad, U.S. goods returned to the United States by its Armed Forces, personal and household effects of travellers, and in-transit shipments.
Monthly data include actual month's transactions as well as a small number of transactions for previous months. Each month the Census Bureau revise the aggregate seasonally adjusted (current and chain-weighted dollar) and unadjusted export, import and trade balance figures, as well as the end-use totals for the prior month.
A trade deficit means that the US has a net outflow of capital from the US to other countries for the foreign trade conducted by its citizens and companies. An increase in the trade deficit generally signals that the US is growing less competitive with foreign competitors in the delivery of goods and services to its own citizens. A widening in the trade deficit could also be attributable to an increase in the cost of essential goods and services that can only be imported from abroad - like oil, the price over which the US has little control. Conversely a narrowing of the trade deficit could signal that the US is becoming more competitive in international trade or perhaps because the cost of major import goods and services has fallen. A widening trade deficit is bad for the country’s economy because it represents a net increase in capital outflows from the economy.
Importance:
A widening trade deficit is generally bad for the US dollar because it signals an increase in the net outflow of money from the US dollar economy. Conversely a narrowing of the trade deficit is seen as good for the dollar as it indicates a reduction in the net outflow from the previous month.
Data released by: The US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/index.html
US Trade Exports&Imports
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Frequency: Monthly - a month in arrears, released towards start of second-next month.
Forecast: March: Imports: -- ; Exports: --
Previous: February: Imports: $213.68B ; Exports: $151.36B
Trade Imports and Exports Description (from the US Census Bureau):
The Imports value reflects the total arrival of merchandise from foreign countries that immediately enters consumption channels, warehouses, or Foreign Trade Zones. For imports, the value reported is the U.S. Customs Border and Protection appraised value of merchandise; generally, the price paid for merchandise for export to the United States. Import duties, freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in bringing merchandise to the United States are excluded.
Exports are valued at the f.a.s.- free alongside ship value of merchandise at the U.S. port of export, based on the transaction price including inland freight, insurance, and other charges incurred in placing the merchandise alongside the carrier at the U.S. port of exportation.
Importance:
Not as critical as the actual trade balance figure as the trade balance itself is a calculation equal of Trade Exports minus Trade Imports. The figure itself is important to ascertain if exports or imports are increasing and if so, at what rate.
Data released by: The US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/index.html
US Redbook Retail Sales Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US ABC Consumer Confidence
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US MBA Purchase Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US Crude Inventories and Motor Gasoline Inventories
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Treasury Budget
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Import Price Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B-
Description to follow
US Export Price Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Export Price Index ex. oil and Import Price Index ex. oil
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Retail Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B+
Frequency: Monthly - released in second week of following month.
Forecast: April : --%
Previous: March : 0.2%
Retail Sales Description (from the US Census Bureau):
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for non-respondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences.
Importance:
Key indicator for measuring real consumer sentiment and domestic demand. A high rate increase in retail sales indicates that consumers are buying more and this points to the general wellbeing of the economy as a whole. A slower rate increase or a decline in retail sales signals a drop-off in demand and a slowing in the economy. A positive and high rate increase is dollar positive while a smaller or negative rate change is more detrimental to the US currency.
Data released by : Department of Commerce through the US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html
US Retail Sales excl. autos
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Frequency: Monthly - released in second week of following month.
Forecast: April : --%
Previous: March : 0.1%
Retail Sales Description (from the US Census Bureau):
All Retail Sales but excluding auto vehicles and auto vehicle parts.
Importance:
Key indicator for measuring real consumer sentiment and domestic demand. The change in retail sales excluding the purchase of vehicles gives a better view of consumer sentiment with respect to the purchase of more frequent and consumable produce. A high rate increase in retail sales (excl. autos) indicates that consumers are buying more and possibly more regularly and this points to the current wellbeing of the economy as a whole. A slower rate increase or a decline in retail sales (excl. autos) signals a drop-off in demand and a slowing in the economy. A positive and high rate increase is dollar positive while a smaller or negative rate change is more detrimental to the US currency.
Data released by: Department of Commerce through the US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/advtable.html
US Business Inventories
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US DJ-BTMU Business Barometer
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US NY Fed Manufacturing Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Headline Consumer Price Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B+
Frequency: Monthly - released towards the middle of following month.
Forecast: April : --% on month, --% on year.
Previous: March : 0.3% on month, 4.0% on year.
Consumer Price Index Description:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. It is the broadest and most accurate measure of domestic inflation. The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The index measures price change from a designed reference date.
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month. For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
Importance: As consumer prices are the broadest measure of inflation and because the Fed’s primary role is to keep inflation under control, CPI data is fundamentally important in the determination of US interest rates by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). While the Fed take a keener interest in the core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy prices, which are more volatile), the headline CPI rate is still a very important measure and key US economic indicator. The higher the positive rate of change in the CPI the greater the pressure on the Fed to rein in inflation - through higher interest rates. Conversely, the lower the rate of change (or a negative change), the greater the chance of a pause or a reduction in rates by the Fed. The prospect of higher interest rates helps boost the dollar in the market, while the prospect of a reduction in rates causes the dollar to depreciate.
Data released by: US Department of Labour - Bureau of Labour Statistics
Source Data available at: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
US Consumer Price Index Core excl. food & energy
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): A
Frequency: Monthly - released towards the middle of following month.
Forecast: April : --% on month, -- on year.
Previous: March : 0.2% on month, 2.4% on year.
Core Consumer Price Index Description:
The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by households, excluding food and energy prices which are more volatile to seasonal and external factors. It is a broad and accurate measure of domestic inflation over a given time. The CPIs are based on prices of clothing, shelter, transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs, and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living. Movements of the indexes from one month to another are usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index points, because index point changes are affected by the level of the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are not. The index measures price change from a designed reference date.
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as unadjusted changes each month. For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions, production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
Importance: Core CPI data is fundamentally important in the determination of US interest rates by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed take a keen interest in the core consumer price index (which excludes food and energy prices), and it is the most influential economic indicator in the determination of interest rate policy. The higher the positive rate of change in core CPI, the greater the pressure on the Fed to rein in inflation - through higher interest rates. Conversely, the lower the rate of change (or a negative change) in core CPI, the greater the chance of a pause or a reduction in rates by the Fed. The prospect of higher interest rates helps boost the dollar in the market, while the prospect of a reduction in rates causes the dollar to depreciate.
Data released by: US Department of Labour - Bureau of Labour Statistics
Source Data available at: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
US Industrial Production
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Capacity Utilization
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US University of Michigan Consumer Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B-
Description to follow
US Current Account Balance
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Treasury Capital International Inflows
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US NAHB Housing Market Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Housing Starts
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - released in middle of month.
Forecast: April: --K
Previous: March: 947K
Housing Starts Description (from the US Census Bureau):
The start of construction is when excavation begins for the footings or foundation of a building. All housing units in a multifamily building are defined as being started when excavation for the building has begun. Beginning with statistics for September 1992, estimates of housing starts include units in residential structures being totally rebuilt on an existing foundation. Housing starts are estimated for all areas of the United States, regardless of whether permits are required. Housing Starts cover the entire area of the US.
Importance:
A key indicator for measuring consumer demand in housing as well as an important gauge for monitoring the well-being of the construction sector and it is watched closely by the Fed and the wider market. A decline in the annual rate, reported on a monthly basis, may be as a result of the housing market’s inability to absorb current levels of interest rates and this adds weight to the argument for a reduction in the Fed’s core rate, which is negative for the dollar. Conversely a rise in the housing rate suggest the housing sector is managing to absorb current interest rate levels and is dollar positive. The real impact on the dollar will depend on the scale of the rise or fall in the housing starts rate.
Data released by: Department of Commerce through the US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
US Building Permits
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Frequency: Monthly - released in middle of month.
Forecast: April: --K
Previous: March: 927K
Building Permits Description (from the US Census Bureau):
Statistics on housing units authorized by building permits include housing units issued in local permit-issuing jurisdictions by a building or zoning permit. Not all areas of the country require a building or zoning permit. The statistics only represent those areas that do require a permit. Current surveys indicate that construction is undertaken for all but a very small percentage of housing units authorized by building permits. A major portion typically get under way during the month of permit issuance and most of the remainder begin within the three following months. Because of this lag, the housing unit authorization statistics do not represent the number of units actually put into construction for the period shown, and should therefore not be directly interpreted as "housing starts."
Importance:
Not as important as the housing starts indicator, which is the gauge widely used by financial markets to monitor performance of the US construction sector. However permits indicate the number of new projects likely to get under way and are an early indication of consumer confidence or apathy with current constructions costs and interest rates. An increase in the permits rate signals an early ability to absorb current Us interest rates and is generally dollar positive. A fall in the rate signals possible apathy with current interest rates and is dollar negative. The real effect on the dollar will depend on the scale of the rise or fall in the permits rate.
Data released by: Department of Commerce through the US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
US Housing Completions
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Frequency: Monthly - released in middle of month.
Forecast: April: --K
Previous: March: 1216k
Housing Completions Description (from the US Census Bureau):
One-unit structures are defined as completed when all finished flooring has been installed. If the building is occupied before all construction is finished, it is classified as completed at the time of occupancy. In buildings with two or more housing units, all the units in the building are counted as completed when 50 percent or more of the units are occupied or available for occupancy. Housing completions are estimated for all areas of the United States, regardless of whether permits are required.
Importance:
Not as important as the housing starts rate, which is the most popular gauge for measuring performance in the construction sector. The completion rate is however key in terms of establishing the volume of housing projects that actually reach completion. An increase in the completion rate points to the sector’s ability to absorb current interest rates which is dollar positive and a decrease in the rate could suggest a slowdown and point to a need for a lowering of US interest rates, which is dollar negative.
Data released by: Department of Commerce through the US Census Bureau
Source Data available at: http://www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html
US Core PPI excl food & energy
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Frequency: Monthly - released towards the middle of following month.
Forecast: April : -- on month, -- on year.
Previous: March : 0.2% on month, 2.7% on year.
Core Producer Price Index Description:
The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services, but excluding food and energy inputs and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPIs measure price change from the purchaser's perspective. Sellers' and purchasers' prices can differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs. More than 8,000 PPIs for individual products and groups of products are released each month and the headline index is an aggregate of all of the collected PPIs. The core PPI rate includes all prices components also included in the headline rate, but it excludes the food and energy price indexes, which tend to be more volatile and can often distort or mask the real direction of underlying producer prices.
Seasonally adjusted data are preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because these data eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at about the same time, and in about the same magnitude, every year-such as price movements resulting from normal weather patterns, regular production and marketing cycles, model changeovers, seasonal discounts, and holidays. For these reasons, seasonally adjusted data more clearly reveal underlying cyclical trends and for that reason are the index results analysed here for the monthly change
Importance: The core producer price index is a most valuable measure of calculating underlying inflation for the production of goods and services in the US. As the core rate excludes the volatile components of energy and food, which can have a tendency to fluctuate up and down, often dramatically, the core rate is seen as the index that gives a more genuine flavour for the real direction of production costs, on a month to month basis. It is an early indication and a signal as to the likely future direction of consumer price inflation and it is a key indicator for the US Fed. An upwardly change in core producer prices lends more bias to higher US interest rates, while a small or negative change in prices helps the argument for lower interest rates. The anticipation of higher interest rates generally leads to a dollar appreciation. Conversely the anticipation of lower interest rates leads to a dollar depreciation. The core producer price index is currently the most important of the producer price indexes for dollar value determination.
Data released by: US Department of Labour - Bureau of Labour Statistics
Source Data available at: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
US PPI
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Frequency: Monthly - released towards the middle of following month.
Forecast: March : -- on month, -- on year.
Previous: February : 1.1% on month, 6.9% on year.
Headline Producer Price Index Description:
The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. This contrasts with other measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPIs measure price change from the purchaser's perspective. Sellers' and purchasers' prices can differ due to government subsidies, sales and excise taxes, and distribution costs. More than 8,000 PPIs for individual products and groups of products are released each month and the headline index is an aggregate of all of the collected PPIs.
Seasonally adjusted data are preferred for analyzing general price trends in the economy because these data eliminate the effect of changes that normally occur at about the same time, and in about the same magnitude, every year-such as price movements resulting from normal weather patterns, regular production and marketing cycles, model changeovers, seasonal discounts, and holidays. For these reasons, seasonally adjusted data more clearly reveal underlying cyclical trends and for that reason are the index results analysed here for the monthly change
Importance: The headline producer price index is the broadest measure of calculating inflation for the production of goods and services in the US. As the headline rate includes volatile items such as energy, commodities and food, it can fluctuate significantly on a month to month basis. It is an early indication and a signal as to likely future direction of consumer prices and it is monitored closely by the US Fed. A significant upwardly change in producer prices lends more bias to higher US interest rates while a small or negative change in prices helps the argument for lower interest rates. The anticipation of higher interest rates generally leads to a dollar appreciation. Conversely the anticipation of lower interest rates leads to a dollar depreciation. The headline producer rate is secondary in importance to the core producer rate, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components.
Data released by: US Department of Labour - Bureau of Labour Statistics
Source Data available at: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.toc.htm
US FOMC Fed Funds Rate
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): A+
Frequency: 8 times per year, on specified dates. Release time is always 14:15 EST.
FOMC minutes are released 3 weeks after the meeting.
Forecast: April 29/30 : --
Previous: March 18 : 2.25%(-75bp)
Federal Funds Rate Description (as per Federal Reserve):
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.
Structure of the FOMC:
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members--the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee's assessment of the economy and policy options.
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Importance: The most significant factor in influencing dollar currency market valuation in the past several years has been interest rates or to be more precise the implied direction of US interest rates. The prospect of a move in interest rate differentials where there is a higher dollar yield sends the dollar up in value and conversely a move in interest rate differentials where the differential yield is against the dollar sends the dollar lower. US interest rate changes on their own don’t move the market, but where US interest rates are headed relative to interest rates for say the euro, the yen and the pound does matter and has a major market impact. The market usually guesses correctly from FOMC meeting to meeting what rates will be announced, but what the market can’t guess is what the FOMC members may say and thus the statement and minutes released from the FOMC meeting are used by the market to get an indication of where rates are going both at the next FOMC meeting and in the longer run. If the language hardens to the hawkish side it means further monetary tightening and rate hikes are possibly ahead whereas if the language softens to the dovish side it means a pause or a possible loosening of monetary policy may be ahead. The FOMC take a vote on the Fed funds rate and how members vote is an indication as to their leaning on where monetary policy is at.
Interest rates were increased by 25 basis points at every FOMC meeting between June 2004 and June 2006. August 2006 was the first pause in this cycle.
Warning: Short periods of market volatility immediately after the release of the FOMC statement and FOMC minutes is normal. Immediate market interpretation of the Fed’s sentiment is sometimes wrong and it can take several days before the genuine market impact is seen.
Most Recent FOMC Statement:
Release Date: December 12, 2006
For immediate release
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.
Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market. Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; William Poole; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen. Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred an increase of 25 basis points in the federal funds rate target at this meeting.
Data released by: US Federal Reserve Board
Source Data available at:http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/#calendars
US Conference Board Leading Indicators
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Philadelphia Fed Business Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Existing Home Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Consumer Confidence
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D+
Description to follow
US Durable Orders
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B-
Description to follow
US Durable Orders (excl. trans.)
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US New Home Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US Challenger Layoffs
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): E
Description to follow
US Consumer Credit
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US ISM Services Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B-
Frequency: Monthly - released on the 3rd business day of the month.
Forecast: April: --
Previous: March: 49.6
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Description (from ISM):
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is released on the third business day of each month, and is based on data compiled from monthly surveys sent to more than 375 purchasing executives working in the non-manufacturing industries across the country. Each month, these survey responses reflect change, if any, in the current month's report compared to the previous month. The report covers Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries.
Importance:
The most important and representative non-manufacturing business activity index available for the US. The business activity index is a diffusion index and is similar to a leading indicator in measuring and showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change in the services sector of the US economy. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. As with the manufacturing index, the business index should be looked at together with the prices component index. In terms of the dollar, an expanding index could be negated by a falling prices component, or vice versa. An expanding business index together with an expanding prices component is a signal for possible monetary tightening by the Fed and is dollar positive.
Data released by: The US Institute for Supply Management
Source Data available at: http://www.ism.ws
US ISM Services Prices
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Total Vehicle Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Wholesale Inventories
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Wholesale Sales
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Employment Cost Index
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): B
Description to follow
US Productivity
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US Unit Labour Costs
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
US ADP Employment Data
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): D
Description to follow
US Case Shiller Home Price
TodayFx Importance Rating (A-E): C
Description to follow
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